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TURKEY: JP Morgan Raise CPI Forecasts, Expect CBRT to Reduce Rate Cut Size

TURKEY

Following the latest political developments, JP Morgan revise up their year-end inflation forecast to 29.5% oya (previously 27.2%) due to FX pass-through in March and April. They now expect CPI to be 3.2% m/m in March (previously 2.3%) due to FX pass-through in addition to the impact of Ramadan and adverse weather conditions on food prices. In response to inflationary pressures, the CBRT is likely to reduce the size of rate cuts to 150bp starting in April to 35% by year-end (previously 30%), in their view.

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Following the latest political developments, JP Morgan revise up their year-end inflation forecast to 29.5% oya (previously 27.2%) due to FX pass-through in March and April. They now expect CPI to be 3.2% m/m in March (previously 2.3%) due to FX pass-through in addition to the impact of Ramadan and adverse weather conditions on food prices. In response to inflationary pressures, the CBRT is likely to reduce the size of rate cuts to 150bp starting in April to 35% by year-end (previously 30%), in their view.