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JP Morgan Say Today’s Rate Hike Likely Completes Tightening Cycle

RUSSIA
  • JP Morgan believe today’s hike was the last step in this tightening cycle and current policy is already sufficiently (if not overly) restrictive.
  • The next stage of policy discussions will likely focus on the appropriate duration of keeping policy tight, they say, adding that the statement noted that bringing inflation back to the 4% target implies a prolonged period of tight monetary policy.
  • However, JPM suspect that as inflation momentum drops in 1H24, the pressure will build to reverse part of recent policy tightening. They anticipate the first cut in 2Q24, with the key rate to be reduced to around 10% by end-2024.

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