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JP Morgan See Further Fiscal, Monetary Measures After Disappointing Financing Data

CHINA
  • On the earlier China money supply / credit data, JPM write that:
  • While bank loans came in weaker-than-expected, details in the data suggest medium and long term loans to the corporate sector remained solid in May, likely indicating ongoing credit support for infra-FAI, manufacturing upgrade, and including credit support for developers to stabilize the housing market.
  • Data reinforces concerns of slowing economic momentum and the need for growth-supportive policies to contain downside risks on growth.
  • Following the 10bps cut in the 7-day reverse repo and SLF rates, they see a 25bps RRR cut in July.
  • They also expect the government to mobilize existing policy to deal with headwinds via faster issuance of special local government bonds, further housing policy relaxation and product specific stimulus.
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