MNI: BOJ Tankan: Key Sentiment Rises, Solid Capex Plans

MNI BRIEF: Trump Likely To Let Powell Serve Full Term-Moore

MNI BRIEF: Canada Household Debt Tops $3 Trillion In 3Q

MNI BOJ DEC TANKAN LARGE MFG INDEX +14; SEPT 13; MEDIAN +12

MNI INTERVIEW2: Poland To Push For EU Defence Fund

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Stabilising Housing Market - CEWC

MNI: UK DEC GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX -17

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Belgium ORI Facility on Friday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -190 BCF TO 3,747 BCF DEC 06 WK

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

JPM Below Consensus For NFP Growth But Above For Earnings

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPM forecast NFP growth of 150k in December, with gains “concentrated in a few industries that historically have not been very negatively impacted by higher rates” as “over 80%” of the jobs gain will come “from health care and social assistance (+80k) and the public sector (+45k)”.
  • They expect "continued weakness in the retail employment (-20k) and transportation and warehousing employment (-15k). The expected run-up in hiring in these areas (before seasonal adjustment) has not occurred lately which has resulted in declines in the seasonally adjusted figures, and we think that seasonally adjusted hiring will decline again in December as increases in the unadjusted data disappoint the seasonal norms.” Private job creation seen at 105k in Dec.
  • They expect continued tightness in the labor market will yield a 0.4% M/M increase in AHE, whilst workweek hours hold at 34.4 hours for a 0.1% increase in aggregate hours on the month.
  • The unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 3.8% “even with an expectation for another increase in household survey employment”, partially undoing the 0.2pp drop in November. The participation rate should have increased another tenth to 62.9%.
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletJPMorgan Market News Fixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsMarkets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.