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JPM Below Consensus For NFP Growth But Above For Earnings

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPM forecast NFP growth of 150k in December, with gains “concentrated in a few industries that historically have not been very negatively impacted by higher rates” as “over 80%” of the jobs gain will come “from health care and social assistance (+80k) and the public sector (+45k)”.
  • They expect "continued weakness in the retail employment (-20k) and transportation and warehousing employment (-15k). The expected run-up in hiring in these areas (before seasonal adjustment) has not occurred lately which has resulted in declines in the seasonally adjusted figures, and we think that seasonally adjusted hiring will decline again in December as increases in the unadjusted data disappoint the seasonal norms.” Private job creation seen at 105k in Dec.
  • They expect continued tightness in the labor market will yield a 0.4% M/M increase in AHE, whilst workweek hours hold at 34.4 hours for a 0.1% increase in aggregate hours on the month.
  • The unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 3.8% “even with an expectation for another increase in household survey employment”, partially undoing the 0.2pp drop in November. The participation rate should have increased another tenth to 62.9%.
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