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JPM bring forward expected first MPC hike to 4Q22 from 1Q23

BOE
  • JPM notes that "expectations of longer term scarring are diminishing, and a more complete recovery coupled with a limited underlying inflation undershoot to start with argue for an earlier rate hike."
  • In the note, JPM argues that "a short delay [to the June 21 reopening] is unlikely to be very economically significant given many big restrictions have already been eased, mobility has already shown huge gains, a recovery in less consumer facing sectors is underway, and confidence is rising sharply. We continue to see full year GDP posting an 8.1% gain this year, which is close to the top end of the consensus."
  • In terms of the balance sheet, JPM's "best guess is that the BoE will stop reinvestments at or shortly after the first rate hike, which along with subsequent fiscal tightening would argue for a somewhat slower pace of rate normalization".
  • JP Morgan moves its expectation of a first MPC hike from 1Q23 to 4Q22. While it notes this is on the face of it a small change, it does underline that the BOE is "moving further ahead of many other DM central banks."
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