Free Trial

JPM: Broad CPI Gains, But Portion Will Be Transitory

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

JPMorgan note the fairly widespread gains across main subcomponents within the January CPI report, yet there are still reasons to think that a portion of the recent strength will be transitory, particularly if supply chains and inventories normalize.

  • Rent indexes continued to increase at solid rates, with tenants rent seeing the largest monthly gain since 1992 and OER close to its recent average growth.
  • After a significantly outpacing broader inflation aggregates, they see vehicle price inflation cooling once production and inventories normalize. Note that the changes in relative importance will have a larger impact ahead than last year (9.2% in 2022 from 7.5% in 2021)
  • “Some other categories with January price increases included transportation services (1.0%), apparel (1.1%), and medical care (0.7%)”.
  • “Not every category within the CPI was strong in January, and the lodging price index fell 3.9% (potentially tied to Omicron-related issues)”.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.