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JPM: Broad CPI Gains, But Portion Will Be Transitory

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

JPMorgan note the fairly widespread gains across main subcomponents within the January CPI report, yet there are still reasons to think that a portion of the recent strength will be transitory, particularly if supply chains and inventories normalize.

  • Rent indexes continued to increase at solid rates, with tenants rent seeing the largest monthly gain since 1992 and OER close to its recent average growth.
  • After a significantly outpacing broader inflation aggregates, they see vehicle price inflation cooling once production and inventories normalize. Note that the changes in relative importance will have a larger impact ahead than last year (9.2% in 2022 from 7.5% in 2021)
  • “Some other categories with January price increases included transportation services (1.0%), apparel (1.1%), and medical care (0.7%)”.
  • “Not every category within the CPI was strong in January, and the lodging price index fell 3.9% (potentially tied to Omicron-related issues)”.
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