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JPM Enter Fresh USD/CHF Call Spread Recommendation

CHF
  • JPMorgan affirm two CHF options trades, and enter a fresh USD/CHF call spread recommendation. They hold CHF/JPY 4m digital 163 put (current PnL +1.22%) and short CHF/SEK cash, with an entry at 11.6515 and a stop of 2.5%, (current PnL -1.32%). They recommend entering a USD/CHF 0.91/0.93 call spread, expiring 12th July.
  • In their rationale, they note that their model for the CHF NEER implies it’s 4% rich, and leading indicators suggest further upside for global manufacturing, which would leave CHF even more rich on that model.
  • They write that investors may increasingly use CHF to achieve the same trading goals as JPY or EUR, given that MoF verbal intervention and tariff risks respectively limit the tradability of those currencies. That dynamic extends the shelf life of any CHF move.
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