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JPM Expects 50bps Hike In Base Rate, 30bps Hike in 1W Depo

HUNGARY
  • The NBH remains clearly driven by market sentiment and its impact on the forint, as evidenced by a mid-month 50bps hike to the 1-week depo rate (to 7.25%) recently.
  • NBH rates arguably have the weakest transmission mechanism in the region, which together with the fact that FX reserves are relatively scarce means the NBH is the most exposed to changes in market sentiment and expectations of DM central bank tightening.
  • JPM recently lifted its expectations for peak 1-week depo rate by 100bps to 9.5% in 3Q22, with the base-rate converging to that level by 4Q.
  • This week, JPM expects a 50bp hike to the base rate to be followed by a 30bp deposit rate hike, as market sentiment has calmed somewhat.
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