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JPM Eye Further Moderation But Labor Market Remarkably Resilient

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPMorgan are below consensus for Friday's nonfarm payrolls growth, eyeing further moderation to 175k (cons 200k) in July, with 135k from private (120k services, 15k goods) and a relatively strong 40k from government to extend a string of elevated readings.
  • They see signs of labor demand strength from a number of measures and highlight the Conference Board’s labor differential improving again in July to a six-month high whilst initial jobless claims appear to be trending broadly sideways rather than up over the past six months and continuing claims have been trending lower. The labor market continues to display remarkable resilience.
  • AHE seen rising 0.3% M/M in July per consensus, whilst the average workweek holding steady at 34.4 hours for aggregate hours growth of 0.1% M/M.
  • In the household survey, JPM may be below consensus for payrolls but they also expect the unemployment rate to once again tick down to 3.5%, close to its cycle (and 53-year) low (cons 3.6%). The labor force participation rate should have held steady at 62.6%, while the employment-to-population ratio should have ticked up to 60.4%, returning to where it was in April.
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