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JPM: Looking For A Not Particularly Soft Core CPI Print

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPMorgan estimate core CPI at 0.26% M/M in December, not “a particularly soft print but it would keep the year-ago change for this measure moderating over time” (from 4.0% Y/Y in Nov to 3.8% in Dec).
  • They look for rent measures to “keep climbing at a solid, though decelerating, pace” with tenants’ rents at 0.34% M/M and OER at 0.33% M/M.
  • Medical care prices are seen with "another solid gain" at 0.5% owing to health insurance prices keeping on "increasing in December because of the BLS’s estimation techniques", whilst they new vehicle prices should rise 0.9% "based on our analysis of related industry figures.”
  • Notable declines from used declines (-1.6%, “industry figures tied to used vehicles point to recent weakening”) and “lodging prices will continue their recent downward trend, falling 0.3%”.
  • Public transportation prices seen declining -0.5% M/M in December, whilst “apparel prices in the CPI also generally have moved lower lately through some noisy monthly prices” with a -0.1% forecast.
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