JPM: Modestly Above Consensus For Payrolls

Strong But Cooling Job Growth, U/E Rate To Dip A Tenth Per Consensus

• JPMorgan see total payrolls up 475k in April (private 470k), a step up from March’s 431k but softer than the recent average and apart from March, the softest monthly change since last fall.
• Many of their tracked economic indicators point to continued strength “but the underlying trend in job growth could be cooling somewhat as the tight labor market makes it hard to fill some positions and we move further away from the earlier stages of “reopening” that generated some months with boomier increases in employment”.
• They see average weekly hours bouncing to 34.7 for a 0.7% M/M jump in the aggregate hours, whilst AHE could rise “a strong, not particularly robust” 0.4% M/M.
• The upward trend in participation may take a breather in April, with the participation rate steady at 62.4%, helping the u/e rate nudge down from 3.6% to 3.5%. They see the employment-population ratio up 0.2pp to 60.3%.
• Post-ADP update: ADP came up short of expectations at 247k (cons 383k), the softest since the recovery began. However, keep in mind that the ADP report has not proven to be a reliable indicator of the BLS data over time, although last month the March prints looked pretty similar.