JPM Morgan say that the UK economy is.......>

UK VIEW: JPM Morgan say that the UK economy is "feeling the effects of Brexit

uncertainty with annualized growth of investment running around 5% below levels

we would otherwise expect" and put the risk of a "no deal" at 25%.

- JPM expect an agreement to be reached on a transitional deal after the March

2019 deadline, "during which much of the status quo will be retained", but only

see a "sketch" of what a future trade deal would look like. JPM go on to say

that they think a trade deal would take longer than 2-years to be agreed and

"most likely longer than that to be fully implemented" and warn that access to

EU service markets would be "significantly constrained".

- JPM see it "far too early" to position for gilt yields to underperform against

cross markets and steeper yield curve on back of political sovereign risk, and

look to "tactically" trade a long 10-yr Gilt position vs 10-yr USTs. JPM also

add that Brexit uncertainty is likely to keep the the money market curve

relatively flat and stop markets from pricing a normal BoE hiking cycle. JPM see

uncertainty persisting until Dec EU summit and if the deadlock is not broken

than for markets to increasingly price "a growth-negative hard-Brexit outcome".