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HUNGARY

EURHUF Trading Back Above 400 Level

EQUITIES

Stoxx600 up 1.06%

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JPM Revises Down Full-year Growth Forecast From 4.3% to 3.7%

CHINA
  • Uncertainties related to economic forecasts are high as:
    • Implementation of zero-COVID policy remains the biggest uncertainty, including the risk of prolonged disruption of economic activity and the risk of recurring Omicron waves;
    • The government may introduce additional policy stimulus within the next few months, e.g., supplementary fiscal deficit, fiscal transfer to households or more aggressive housing policy relaxation.
  • Investors’ assessment of the economic outlook is biased to the bearish side, for two important reasons:
    • The “data-smoothing” practice and concerns about quality of the NBS statistics; and
    • A larger component of “unproductive GDP” related to the cost of zero-COVID policy implementation, which tends to increase the economic/operational costs of business activities.
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  • Uncertainties related to economic forecasts are high as:
    • Implementation of zero-COVID policy remains the biggest uncertainty, including the risk of prolonged disruption of economic activity and the risk of recurring Omicron waves;
    • The government may introduce additional policy stimulus within the next few months, e.g., supplementary fiscal deficit, fiscal transfer to households or more aggressive housing policy relaxation.
  • Investors’ assessment of the economic outlook is biased to the bearish side, for two important reasons:
    • The “data-smoothing” practice and concerns about quality of the NBS statistics; and
    • A larger component of “unproductive GDP” related to the cost of zero-COVID policy implementation, which tends to increase the economic/operational costs of business activities.