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JPM See Cajado Fiscal Proposals as Stricter Than Expected

BRAZIL
  • JPM write that Cajado's fiscal framework was stricter than they expected, increasing upside risk to their 2024 fiscal forecasts.
  • They believe the new fiscal framework should reinforce the more positive momentum seen over the past few days. It maintains the structural backbone of Haddad’s proposal, but has improvements that stretch beyond what was speculated in media.
  • Two aspects point to a more immediate risk to their 1.0% primary deficit forecast for next year, suggesting that fiscal results could be better than they expect. Firstly, the list of revenues that will not be accounted for when designing the following year’s spending limit, and secondly, the new version also reduces the list of items that would be exempted from the rule, which could also shave between 0.1-0.2% of their overall expenditures expectation.
  • JPM expect a more accurate picture of yoy real revenue growth by the end of July, while the official budget proposal must be sent until August.
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