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JPM See Upside Risk to SA Revenue Overrun on FinMin Appointment

SOUTH AFRICA
  • JPM's view on the new South African FinMin & cabinet reshuffle:
  • The changes were overdue and more extensive than expected, but adding a new FinMin during a period of several important fiscal debates adds uncertainty to the outlook, with a new supplementary budget now probably needed
  • Godongwana is a moderate pragmatist, and seems to favour sensibility, a multi-pronged approach and may be open to social support measures.
  • His previous comments acknowledge that the tax base cannot readily sustain higher spending, but a focus on growth is central.
  • JPM's projection for a ZAR 105-110bln revenue overrun has scope to surprise to the upside, and now see a moderately wider confidence band around their FY21/22 deficit forecast of 7.4-8.0%. (From 7.4% forecast previously).
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