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JPM: Still Firm Core Should Keep On Track For 75bp In Sep

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JPMorgan note the July CPI data were weaker than expected, with the headline index essentially unchanged in July and the core rising 0.3% M/M, a firm pace by pre-pandemic standards but the slowest pace since March.
  • The weakness in the headline index was largely attributable to a sharp decline in energy prices but with no relief for food inflation.
  • In core items, there was sustained strength in some salient categories—such as those related to shelter (+0.5% M/M)—partially offset by declining prices in others.
  • The rent measures posted very strong monthly gains, with the tenants’ rent index up 0.70% M/M and OER rising 0.63%. Given signals from spot rental rates, we expect shelter inflation will remain strong in coming months.
  • The weaker-than-expected but still firm gain in core should keep the FOMC on track to hike by 75bp in Sep.
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JPMorgan note the July CPI data were weaker than expected, with the headline index essentially unchanged in July and the core rising 0.3% M/M, a firm pace by pre-pandemic standards but the slowest pace since March.
  • The weakness in the headline index was largely attributable to a sharp decline in energy prices but with no relief for food inflation.
  • In core items, there was sustained strength in some salient categories—such as those related to shelter (+0.5% M/M)—partially offset by declining prices in others.
  • The rent measures posted very strong monthly gains, with the tenants’ rent index up 0.70% M/M and OER rising 0.63%. Given signals from spot rental rates, we expect shelter inflation will remain strong in coming months.
  • The weaker-than-expected but still firm gain in core should keep the FOMC on track to hike by 75bp in Sep.