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JPM, TD See Fed Remaining "Aggressive" On June CPI Report

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

JPMorgan: The underlying strength of June's upside CPI surprise "was pretty broad-based" and will keep pressure on the Fed to be "aggressive" in July. A 50bp hike in July "looks very unlikely at this point", and there's a chance the Fed tightens by more than JPM's 75bp expectation.

  • Pending the PPI report, JPM pencils in a +0.50% M/M core PCE inflation rate for June (4.7% Y/Y).
TD: The June inflation report underlines that the Fed will "maintain its aggressive tightening bias in the months ahead", including a 75bp hike in July and the door remaining open to another 75bp in Sept.
  • They point to potential for further shelter price strength: "Given the lagged impact from private-rents data and the CPI series (due to the BLS methodology), we believe we are in the middle of the passthrough of peak strength to the CPI series."
  • Looking ahead, overall, "we expect prices to continue to register firm gains in the near term on the back of a still solid backdrop for services prices (led by shelter), lingering supply-chain headwinds, and on-and-off external energy and food-price shocks."
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