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JPM: Vehicles and Rents To Help Softest Core CPI Since Mid-2023

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPMorgan estimate core CPI at 0.22% M/M (cons 0.3), its softest M/M increase since mid-2023.
  • Used vehicles CPI seen -1.9% M/M judging by industry data, whilst “separate industry figures also continue to suggest moderation in the rent measures in the CPI, and we look for tenants’ rent to be up 0.32% in January and owners’ equivalent to increase 0.31%.”
  • Other downside from “another decline in public transportation prices (-0.7%) as well as a continued downward trend for communication prices (-0.1%).”
  • Upside: lodging seen up 0.8% M/M and they also see a continued upward trend for medical care prices at 0.5% M/M.
  • Headline CPI seen at 0.1% M/M owing to a drag from energy prices (-1.8%) whilst food prices (0.2% M/M) “continue climbing near their recent average growth rate”.
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