MNI BRIEF: PBOC Increases Gold Reserves

MNI BRIEF: Japan Q3 GDP Revised Up On Net Exports, Capex

MNI JAPAN Q3 GDP REV +0.3% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.2%; MEDIAN +0.2%

CORRECTED-MNI: Fed's Hammack-Near Or At Time To Slow Rate Cuts

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Sees Rates Fair Bit Lower In A Year

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 6

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY DEC INDEX 74.0

CANADA NOV IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 52.3 SA

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

JPMorgan: Expect 100Bp BCB Hike In A Close Call

BRAZIL
  • JPMorgan expect the COPOM to hike the SELIC rate by 100bp next week, in line with the consensus, but below the market pricing between 100bp and 125bp..
  • They note their call is a close one, though as the outlook for inflation remains challenging, particularly as the conflict in Ukraine might add even more inflationary pressures. For example, JPM raised their 2022 CPI inflation forecast by 130bp to 6.5% since the last meeting and increased the 2023 projection to 3.5%, 25bp above the target.
  • Under normal circumstances this rise in inflation would prompt BCB to choose a more aggressive hike. However, not only has BCB already tightened 825bp in the last 12 months, lifting rates well into restrictive territory, but the extent of the impact and the duration of this global shock to growth and inflation are highly uncertain.
  • JPM believe the statement will reinforce that it will wait for more clarity to decide its next policy move, opening the door for another 100bp hike in May. For now, JPM continue looking for BCB to hike 50bp at both the May and June meetings, with a terminal SELIC rate of 12.75%, but it is a close call for a more hawkish outcome.

BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.