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JPMorgan Expect BCCh To Signal Aversion To Amount Of Expected Easing

CHILE
  • JPMorgan expect the Board to keep the policy rate unchanged at 11.25%, while signalling the necessary conditions to ease in 2Q23—that is, a clear downward trend for headline inflation in 1Q23, together with further drops of inflation expectations, particularly by the policy horizon.
  • JPM also expect the Board to signal its aversion to the amount of expected easing already priced in, likely by reinforcing the central scenario for the policy horizon pencilled in the latest monetary policy report.
  • It would be interesting to weigh any potential discussion on the current NDF overhang and the possibility to roll off earlier. The NDF stock amounts to US$9.1bn.
  • JPM’s base case scenario contemplates a first cut in April, of 50bp, and the policy rate converging to 7.5% by year-end with a 5.5% easing cycle terminal rate.
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