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JPMorgan Expect BCRP To Maintaining Steady Policy Rate Normalization Pace

PERU
  • Despite the statement, JPMorgan’s base case is for the Board to continue trimming the policy rate in the months to come.
  • The monetary authority projects the decreasing inflation trend to extend ahead, with CPI reaching the target range at the beginning of next year. That said, there are risks associated with climatic factors. The next 12-month inflation expectations eased by 21bp, to 3.36% in August, approaching the upper limit of the inflation target range. Finally, on activity, leading indicators and expectations about the economy in August show a moderate recovery compared to the previous month, although they still remain in the pessimistic range.
  • Ahead, JPMorgan’s base case assumes the BCRP maintaining a steady policy rate normalization pace, trimming 25bp by meeting. The policy rate is thus expected to converge to 6.25% by December, with the terminal rate level forecasted at 4.0%. by 3Q24.
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