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JPMorgan Expecting Consistent 75BP Cuts For Rest Of 2023

CHILE
  • JPMorgan have noted that this week, Chile’s central bank is expected to lead the way, kicking off the easing cycle, as signalled in the last policy meeting.
  • Activity has converged back to levels consistent with potential growth after the material deviation observed back in 2021-22, suggesting the relevant activity gap for monetary policy is converging to zero. And the June CPI report cements the likelihood of the start in the easing cycle this week at the upcoming policy meeting.
  • JPMorgan expect the CBC to kick off the easing cycle with a 75bp cut, followed by back-to-back reductions of 75bp in the rest of the year, bringing the policy rate to 8.25% by year-end.
  • JPM maintain the policy rate at 4.25% for December 2024, a call that is extremely dependent on the health of the global economy in 2H24.
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