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JPMorgan: Now We’re Talking

FED

JPM saw the June FOMC outcome as "a fair bit more hawkish than expected", with the 2023 2 rate hike median the most notable element.

  • "The combination of the economic forecasts and the statement suggest that the reduction in pandemic-related growth risks was the main motivation for the revision to the policy outlook."
  • Powell likewise said that changing risk assessments likely affected FOMC members' views of optimal monetary policy.
  • His comments on the dot plot / forecasts not necessarily him intentionally downplaying this specific SEP's dot plot, as he's been pretty consistent on that message over the years.
  • On FAIT, Powell said "there is an element of discretion", to which JPM noted: "the same could be said of the tapering discussion".
  • Inflation forecasts suggest FOMC members forecast a pretty quick slowing of inflation in coming months.
  • Future action: JPM still looks for rate liftoff in 2023, with tapering beginning in 1Q 2022 (with a risk of Dec 2021 start – but before that would be "pretty rushed").
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