MNI BRIEF: Treasury's Yellen: Inflation Moving To Fed's Target

MNI BRIEF: China State Planner To Increase Trade-in Support

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 25

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY200 Bln via MLF Thurs; Rate Cut

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1321 Thurs; -1.92% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY235.1 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BoE Short APF Operation on Monday

US Treasury Auction Calendar

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BoE Short APF Operation on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

JPMorgan On Brazil: Revise Terminal Selic Rate Call To 11.75%

BRAZIL
  • Expecting higher commodity prices next year, JPMorgan raised next year's IPCA forecast from 4.7% to 5%, which still represents a slowdown but less so than before.
  • With prospective inflation rising and fiscal uncertainties lingering for longer, last week JPM also fine-tuned their monetary policy call.
  • They continue to expect BCB to hike 150bp at the December meeting, as long as there is no further fiscal deterioration in the proposal of a constitutional amendment to cap court-ordered payments in 2022 and recalculate the spending cap that has been approved in the Lower House.
  • However, they adjusted their call for the first meeting of 2022 from 100bp to 150bp believing the BCB won't be willing to signal a deceleration of the pace that soon.
  • JPM maintain their call for a final 100bp hike in March, as BCB's target horizon already will have mainly moved to 2023, leaving the terminal SELIC rate at 11.75%.
  • They think that the central bank will keep rates stable at least until the second quarter of 2023, waiting for more fiscal visibility, particularly after J.P. Morgan's US economists changed the Fed funds rate call to two hikes in September and December 2022.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.