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JPMorgan On Colombia Data Schedule and BanRep

COLOMBIA
  • JPMorgan on the upcoming data this week: Calling for 8.5%oya growth in 4Q21, consistent with a 9%q/q, saar pace. Absent backward revisions, their call is consistent with a 10.2%y/y GDP growth result for full 2021—a tad higher than the 9.9% that BanRep expects in its recently published quarterly monetary policy report.
  • As for the expectations survey, JPM revised up their own forecasts for end-22 and end-23 inflation by 34bp and 9bp respectively to 4.93% and 4.08%. The median expectation of BanRep’s January survey was 4.48% for end-2022 and 3.5% for end-2023. While accelerating inflation and expectations, combined with increased hawkishness from the Fed, had markets already contemplating another hike at the February (non-voting) meeting, Governor Villar last Thursday told investors quite plainly that an early policy rate decision is not likely.
  • Their base case is for another 100bp in March which would still leave BanRep 125bp shy of their expectations for a 6.25% terminal rate. JPM doubt BanRep will move more aggressively in a preemptive manner; an acceleration would likely only be prompted by a confidence shock rattling Colombian assets.
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