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JPMorgan On Colombia Politics/Presidential Primaries:

COLOMBIA
  • Polls suggest centre right parties, including the government’s Centro Democratico, will likely lose ground. Left-wing Senator Gustavo Petro’s Historic Pact party will likely be the single biggest gainer compared to the 2018 result. As such, Congress will likely shift to some degree to the left in terms of its overall composition.
  • Depending on this outcome, we will be able to make some assessment after March 13 about which permutations of ad-hoc coalitions may be possible for different scenarios for the presidential result.
  • As well as the decisions of some parties in the centre-left Hope coalition combined with the Liberal party, Petro may indeed be able to cobble together coalitions for some legislative initiatives. That said, perhaps in anticipation that coalition building will be hard, Petro has already suggested that he could declare an economic state of emergency in order to advance some of his agenda by decree.
  • With the presidential primaries taking the main stage it is presumed we will have two candidates that having won a test with actual voters will gain momentum and the spotlight. Moreover, depending on the outcomes, we can see prospects for traditional party structures activated and mobilizing voters. These dynamics may serve to send Petro’s main rivals from the centre left/right up in the polls.
  • Regarding Petro’s primary, there is little doubt according to polls that he will prevail. The question for Petro, aside for how well his congressional list does, is the perception of enthusiasm and momentum, as measured by the relative participation in the Historic Pact’s consultation.

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