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Review 10Y Auction, Small Tail

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10Y WI

CHILE
  • With markets focusing on the assembly, the election of mayors, councillors and regional governors are likely to play a pivotal role in shaping the general elections scenario.
  • Since the social unrest and pandemic, strengthening of the Communist Party and other radical options have made quasi-populist measures gain traction with the electorate.
  • If support for the Chile Vamos coalition diminishes, markets will likely suffer as the risk of general election defeat increases as well as heightened uncertainty surrounding the constitution's pathway.
  • For the political centre-right, the convention as well as mayoral elections will measure the tensions between conservative and liberal sentiment.
  • For centre-left, elections will allow analysts to calibrate the relative strength of the most extreme forces that have gained prominence against the more centred options. Expect volatility to prevail in 2nd half of year if the centre-left diminishes.
  • Further left, results will also prove a catalyst when it comes to final decisions regarding the nature of the primaries scheduled for July, with Jadue and Jiles needing to form electoral pacts to go into a common primary.
  • In all, the uncertainty on the number of primaries, pre-presidential candidates and individual strategies is to end by May 19. Only after that will we gather certainty for the July 18 primaries. For each one, a name will survive that will remain on the ballot for the first round in November.