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JPMorgan on Latest Agreement With IMF

ARGENTINA
  • JPMorgan have highlighted that the latest IMF Staff statement praised the Milei administration’s front-loaded fiscal adjustment, calling it an ambitious stabilization plan, with the "authorities building social and political support" for it. The statement notes that "as policies are implemented and credibility is rebuilt, a gradual disinflation process should take hold, accompanied by a further strengthening in the external position, and an eventual recovery in output, demand, and real wages.”
  • JPM said the speedy negotiation could help to stabilize the parallel- official FX gap, which has been widening aggressively since the turn of the year. While details on the macro program are yet to be unveiled, JPM note that their current inflation estimates for 1H24 suggest a speedy appreciation of the real exchange rate, with accumulated inflation erasing the official FX devaluation by early second quarter. If JPM’s projected inflation profile pans out, a new re-calibration of the official FX would be required to secure the ability to accumulate reserves in 2H24, and thus phase out capital controls this year.

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