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JPMorgan on Peru Inflation/BCRP

PERU
  • Lima headline inflation printed below expectations at +0.38%m/m in May, vs. JPM forecast for 0.7%, driving annual CPI to 8.1%oya, 510bp above the BCRP inflation target ceiling.
  • When adjusting for seasonality, headline inflation decelerated from April, though to a still-high +0.5%m/m, sa, driving the 3m/3m, saar pace to 8.0%, which compares to 5.3% in March.
  • Ex. food and energy inflation printed at 0.60%m/m, with annual inflation climbing above the 4% threshold to 4.3%oya. When adjusting for seasonality, core inflation did gain momentum, up to 0.6%m/m, sa from 0.5% 3mma in April, so the sequential pace spiked to 4.1% 3m/3m, saar from 3.2% in April.
  • Despite the May downward surprise, the confirmation of a new pension fund withdrawal prompts JPM to mark December 2022 headline inflation higher, at 5.8%oya. They expect inflation to prove more persistent than in prior cycles.
  • JPMorgan expect the BCRP to continue tightening monetary conditions and hike the policy rate again by 50bp this week, setting the policy rate level at 5.5%, followed by an additional 50bp hike in July.
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