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JPMorgan On Tomorrow’s Q1 GDP Data Release/Banxico

MEXICO
  • After the February data released in the last few weeks, there is some early evidence that the strong momentum in supply and demand observed since the COVID reopening is starting to wear down. But still, growth in 1Q was firm thanks to strong Dec/Jan prints.
  • Indeed, growth in January was quite encouraging, suggesting upside risks to JPMorgan’s 3.4%saar 1Q forecast but now, with February eyed at 0.3% and early indicators suggesting a flat reading for March, they remain comfortable with their forecast.
  • JPM expect services at 0.2% in February, consistent with 5.2%saar for January-March, and while IP was strong at 0.7% sequentially, the all-important manufacturing gauge was outright disappointing—as was mining. Expectations of a faster deterioration in economic conditions in the US suggest external demand will moderate sooner rather than later.
  • The correction in growth dynamics will probably validate a faster adjustment in inflation sooner rather than later, particularly with non-core inflation consistently moving south since the end of last year—and electricity subsidies extending a helping hand.
  • JPM do not expect further hikes from Banxico but do not anticipate any cuts in 2023 either, given sticky inflation expectations and inertial forces continuing to cloud the core inflation outlook.
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