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JPMorgan Say Domestic Demand Proving Stronger Than Expected

MEXICO
  • Last week’s data were mixed, but in general continued to stress modest upside to JPMorgan’s past-quarter growth forecast of 2%ar.
  • External demand is becoming a heavier drag, as evident in the recent weak performance of manufacturing, including a surprising 0.5% m/m drop in November, and JPM expect this trend to hold ahead.
  • However, more than offsetting downbeat news on external demand, domestic demand is proving stronger than they thought, as consumption takes the baton in the ongoing recovery. Private consumption rose again in October, and is increasingly being driven by services consumption as goods consumption has lost momentum.
  • In JPMorgan’s view, rising real wage income, a tight labor market, and supportive remittances and credit flows all should continue to bolster consumption ahead.
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