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JPMorgan See Chile Key Rate At 1% By Year-End

CHILE

JPMorgan on the BCCH decision:

  • Yesterday's monetary policy meeting was characterized by a more constructive central bank when it comes to the pace of economic activity.
  • The main innovation in communication came on forward guidance. The Board now signals the monetary policy rate (MPR) will be kept at its minimum of 0.5% for as long as it is deemed necessary for the recovery of the economy to take hold.
  • The Board dropped conditionality for the meaning of 'take hold', as well as the timing reference.
  • The Board is not providing the 'several quarters' time reference anymore, in a clear hawkish tweak and a continuation of more hawkish guidance.
  • They entertain the monetary policy rate at 1.0% by the year-end and 2% by year-end 2022, with the Fed stance as the main risk to a more rapid tightening schedule.
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