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JPMorgan: Still Expect Regular 250bp Rate Hikes

TURKEY
  • JP Morgan maintain their year-end policy rate forecast at 30%, and still expect a 250bp hike at each meeting by the end of the year.
  • Recent communication suggests gradual tightening to avoid a recession ahead of the March 2024 local government elections, JPM say. They have revised up their 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4% (Prior: 3.2%).
  • JPM have also revised up their year-end inflation forecast to 57% (Prior: 50%) and now expect headline inflation to peak at 64% in May 2024 due to unfavorable base effects in natural gas prices and pre-election stimulus. The 2024 year-end inflation forecast is revised up to 34% (Prior: 26%).
  • The Turkish authorities believe that FDI inflows and tourism revenues allow the increase in foreign exchange reserves to continue and also contribute significantly to price stability. Taking into account that view, JPM do not expect significant tightening from the CBRT until the March 2024 local elections.
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