FREELAND: CANADA WON'T ESCALATE OR BACK DOWN ON US TRADE FIGHT

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 8/13/28/50-Week BTF Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt Due on Tuesday

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

JPMorgan Trim Year-End CPI Forecast To 5.4% Following Petrobras Announcement

BRAZIL
  • On Tuesday, Petrobras announced a new pricing policy for fuels that is still market-based and now also considers the customer’s alternative costs and the company’s opportunity cost. Overall, the new strategy is more opaque, but for the moment the company announced cuts in wholesale prices of gasoline (-12.6%), diesel (-12.8%) and cooking gas (-21.3%). In JPM’s calculations, considering the cost structure of those items, yesterday’s cuts have an impact on prices at the customer level of -5.3% for gasoline, -7.7% for diesel and -3.8% for cooking gas.
  • JPM had already embedded in their CPI forecasts a 3.6% cut in gasoline prices at the pump. The larger-than-expected cut to gasoline, combined with the impacts of diesel and cooking gas, reduces their short-term CPI forecasts by about 15bp, leading the May estimate to 0.49% (from 0.55%) and the June forecast to 0.25% (from 0.34%). JPMorgan maintain a below-consensus inflation path throughout the year, and yesterday’s changes drive their year-end forecast down from 5.5% to 5.4%.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.