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JPY Breaks Another Key Level

FOREX
  • JPY extended the downleg into the Thursday close, with both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY moving through a number of notable technical levels. USDJPY marked a sixth consecutive session of higher highs, meaning this week, the pair has cleared the psychological 120.00, 121.00 and now 122.00 handles, strengthening bullish conditions.
  • In the EURJPY cross, prices cleared major resistance at the 2021 highs of 134.13, tilting the RSI higher. This technical measure is now tilting toward flagged overbought conditions for the first time since early February - when it presaged a corrective dip lower from 133.00 to below 126.00.
  • Scandi currencies traded well, with NOK and SEK higher against most others. The Norges Bank raised rates and steepened their rate path projection, indicating rates could be as high as 2.50% at end-2023 - a notable upgrade from their last look in December. A moderation in the oil price worked against NOK into the close, with Brent and WTI shedding 3% apiece.
  • A recovery in Wall Street equities and weight in oil followed a report from Axios, citing the chief of staff to the Ukrainian President as saying that progress had been made in ceasefire negotiations with Russia, expressing "careful optimism".
  • Focus Friday turns to UK retail sales numbers, the German March IFO release and US pending home sales data. Fedspeak continues to filter through, with Daly, Waller, Barkin and Williams on the docket. BoC's Kozicki also makes an appearance.
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