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CNH/JPY surged into the month-end, completing a broader double-bottom structure upon a break above the neckline at Y16.0958, which represents the high print of Jan 20, 2020. DMA studies suggest that the rate remains in a bullish mode, following the formation of a "golden cross" in 2H2020. The ascending 50-DMA has been sticky since then, providing a firm support to the rallying CNH/JPY.
- Price action over the coming days may provide a bellwether of a longer-term trend. The rate charted a bearish Harami candlestick pattern yesterday, while the RSI is flirting with the 70 threshold, having oscillated around this level since the back end of last week.
- Continued rally through May 6, 2019 high/61.8% retracement of the 2018 - 2020 sell-off at Y16.3877/16.3912 would reinforce the bullish case, creating potential for closing the gap from May 6, 2019 through a breach of May 3, 2019 low of Y16.4857. Next resistance of note is located at Apr 17, 2019 high/76.4% recovery of the aforementioned slide at Y16.7878/16.8266.
- Bears look for a dynamic retreat under the neckline, followed by a move through channel floor at Y16.0083 & the 50-DMA/Jan 18 low at Y15.9643/15.9455, which would suggest a potential failure of the double bottom pattern and signal that the rate might be topping out.