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JPY Firmer, Extending Outperformance on BoJ Policy Bets

FOREX
  • JPY is again the firmest performing currency across G10, pressuring USD/JPY toward last week's pullback lows and narrowing the gap with support at Friday's Y146.49 and the 200-dma below at Y146.22. Speculation continues to circulate over a Bank of Japan policy switch as soon as the March meeting - with MNI Policy eyeing the potential for an undisclosed yield cap measure for JGBs should Japan exit negative interest rate policy this month.
  • Weakness through 146.22 in USD/JPY would extend the drop off YTD highs to close to 500 pips - and go a long way to reversing the bull leg posted off the late December lows.
  • AUD trades among the poorest performers so far Monday, with weakness across industrial metals undermining the currency somewhat. Singapore-listed iron ore futures are lower by as much as 7% in Asia trade, helping conclude the sharp strength posted toward the tail-end of last week. 0.6573 is the level to watch on weakness, and move through here would confirm last week's bounce as corrective in nature.
  • The data calendar is typically quiet for a Monday, with just the NY Fed's 1yr inflation expectations release of note. BoE's Catherine Mann is set to speak - among the most hawkish members of the MPC - just after the London close at 1700GMT/1300ET.
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