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CAD: /JPY Looks to Make Clean Break of Key Support

CAD
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We wrote yesterday of the importance of support in CAD/JPY at the pullback August lows (tripped by BoJ intervention) at Y101.67 - the price has shown below this mark today as tariff talk again adds weight to the cross. Confirmed clearance via a close below here would be resolutely bearish for the cross, opening levels last seen in 2023. This leaves the next key support at Y100 psychologically, and Y99.93, the 76.4% retracement for the upleg posted off the 2023 low.

  • These tariff headlines are adding extra weight and further underscore the market perception that the CAD is more exposed to tariff risk vs. MXN (CAD/MXN is 1% lower March-to-date).
  • The clear downward near-term momentum in the cross follows the Rengo pay tally from last week - underlining pay demands at their highest level in over 30 years for the 2025 Shunto round.
  • While the March BoJ decision sees only an outside of a rate hike - but the May 1st meeting could be more consequential, for which the decision could be contingent on the Tankan survey on April 1, reports from the Bank's branch managers' meeting on April 7, the updated Rengo tally in April, and CPI.
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We wrote yesterday of the importance of support in CAD/JPY at the pullback August lows (tripped by BoJ intervention) at Y101.67 - the price has shown below this mark today as tariff talk again adds weight to the cross. Confirmed clearance via a close below here would be resolutely bearish for the cross, opening levels last seen in 2023. This leaves the next key support at Y100 psychologically, and Y99.93, the 76.4% retracement for the upleg posted off the 2023 low.

  • These tariff headlines are adding extra weight and further underscore the market perception that the CAD is more exposed to tariff risk vs. MXN (CAD/MXN is 1% lower March-to-date).
  • The clear downward near-term momentum in the cross follows the Rengo pay tally from last week - underlining pay demands at their highest level in over 30 years for the 2025 Shunto round.
  • While the March BoJ decision sees only an outside of a rate hike - but the May 1st meeting could be more consequential, for which the decision could be contingent on the Tankan survey on April 1, reports from the Bank's branch managers' meeting on April 7, the updated Rengo tally in April, and CPI.