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(N1) Fresh Cycle High


Effective Fed Funds Rate


Selling interest across the board

FOREX: JPY overtook NZD as the leader among G10 currencies following the release
of the latest Chinese trade data, which revealed a narrower than expected trade
surplus. The yen was also aided by a move lower in the Nikkei 225, which trades
~2.0% lower at writing. Elsewhere, JPY ignored the upward revision of Japanese
Q4 GDP, both on a quarterly and annualised basis, as well as Japanese BoP data.
- The Chinese data added pressure to the Antipodeans, while AUD had already been
weighed on by NAB's change to its RBA call. The bank now looks for two 25bp rate
cuts from the RBA, one in July and one in November of this year.
- The Scandies underperformed modestly overnight, in apparent carry-over from
yesterday's post-ECB weakness.
- All in all, the session saw major FX pairs stick to rather tight ranges.
- Focus today turns to labour mkt data from the U.S. & Canada, French & Italian
industrial outputs, German factory orders and Norwegian GDP. Elsewhere, ECB's
Nowotny and Riksbank Dep Gov Floden will speak.