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CNH/JPY sales have resumed and the pair is poised to extend its current losing streak to four consecutive sessions. It last trades at Y15.9950, narrowing in on the 23.6% retracement of the Oct 28 - Jan 12 rally at Y15.9871. Mild risk aversion has weighed on the rate, with a beat in Chinese industrial output counterbalanced by a miss in retail sales.
- A clean break below the aforementioned Fibo level would shift focus to Y15.9370, which represents the trough of Jan 5. Conversely, a rebound above Jan 12 high of Y16.1455 would draw attention to the upper 1.0% 10-DMA envelope at Y16.2014.
- From a longer-term perspective, the rate failed to make much headway beyond the 50% retracement of the 2018 - 2020 slide at Y16.0392 & Jan 20 high of Y16.0958 after a brief foray above there during the upswing seen earlier this month. It has eased off over the last few sessions, pulling back below these levels.
- Meanwhile, the RSI failed to enter overbought territory during the latest upswing and rejected the 70 level, slipping towards 50 alongside a decline in the spot rate.