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Bullish Price Sequence

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  • JPY remains on the backfoot, with the currency underperforming all others in G10. This puts USD/JPY just below the Y113.50 mark, with the week's highs of Y113.80 the upside target and bull trigger. A break above would open levels not seen since late 2018.
  • The greenback also trades offered, with the USD Index extending yesterday's slide to drop to the lowest levels since early October. the moves put EUR/USD back above the 1.16 handle, opening gains toward 1.1640 and the 50-dma at 1.1722.
  • Risk appetite appears to have improved, with European equity markets in positive territory with gains of 0.7-1.1%. This has helped growth proxies and high beta currencies to the top of the table, with NZD, AUD and NOK outperforming.
  • US PPI data crosses later today, with markets expecting a moderation in price pressures on a M/M basis, although Y/Y metrics are expected to continue to climb, putting PPI Final Demand at 8.7%, another series record. Weekly US jobless claims data also crosses.
  • Central bank speak picks up at the NY crossover, with highlights including ECB's Knot, BoE's Tenreyro & Mann as well as FOMC members Barkin, Daly and Harker and Fed's Logan.