JPY: Several Factors Could Limit Appetite for Japanese Intervention

Naturally, today's JPY weakness will raise question about potential intervention from the Japanese authorities - the timing of which historically has not stuck to a particular pattern or time of day, however there are a number of factors that could lessen the appetite of the MoF to request intervention at these levels - despite new lows in spot JPY and the TWI:

• The trigger for the late April intervention was the >5.5% rally in spot off the mid-April lows (and a 4% rally over the course of two weeks), helping define "disorderly" moves in currency markets. This trigger has not been reached on the latest move: USD/JPY has rallied 3.4% off the recent low and 2.4% over the past two weeks. 
• The proximity to this Friday's US PCE release - a stronger-than-expected print here could reverse and work against any intervention if it were carried out today. 
• Verbal warnings don't seem to have picked up in frequency or in terms of language used - Kanda last reiterated on Monday that they were ready to intervene if required.