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JPY: Several Factors Could Limit Appetite for Japanese Intervention
Naturally, today's JPY weakness will raise question about potential intervention from the Japanese authorities - the timing of which historically has not stuck to a particular pattern or time of day, however there are a number of factors that could lessen the appetite of the MoF to request intervention at these levels - despite new lows in spot JPY and the TWI:
- The trigger for the late April intervention was the >5.5% rally in spot off the mid-April lows (and a 4% rally over the course of two weeks), helping define "disorderly" moves in currency markets. This trigger has not been reached on the latest move: USD/JPY has rallied 3.4% off the recent low and 2.4% over the past two weeks.
- The proximity to this Friday's US PCE release - a stronger-than-expected print here could reverse and work against any intervention if it were carried out today.
- Verbal warnings don't seem to have picked up in frequency or in terms of language used - Kanda last reiterated on Monday that they were ready to intervene if required.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.