October 01, 2024 22:19 GMT
JPY: USD/JPY Off Highs Amid Risk Off But Recent Ranges Holding
JPY
USD/JPY tracks near 143.50/55 in early Wednesday dealings. The pair was close to unchanged for Tuesday's session as a whole, but did see just over a 150pip range for the session. Late Tuesday Asia Pac highs were just above 144.50, but we slumped back to just under 143.00 in US trade, as risk off took hold as Iran launched missiles at Israel.
- Broadly for USD/JPY, we remain comfortably within recent ranges. The Sep 30 low rests back at 141.65, while the 50-day EMA is at 146.29.
- Cross asset signals were yen positive, outside of higher oil prices, as the US session unfolded on Tuesday. Equities fell, with the SPX down nearly 1%. The early bias is for further weakness this morning, although losses are between 0.10-0.20% for US futures. US yields were also down in US trade, with a softer ISM print, particularly in terms of the details, weighing as well as the flight to safety.
- Near term focus will rest on any potential Israel retaliation for the Iranian missile attack, with yen likely to benefit from any further risk off.
- The local data calendar just has Sep monetary base figures and consumer confidence on tap today, which are unlikely to shift market sentiment.
- Local politicians, including new PM Ishiba, expressed caution around further BoJ policy adjustments, with defeating deflation remaining the key goal. These sentiments largely echo yesterday's BoJ Summary Of Opinions, although weighed on on yen at the margins.
- In the option expiry space, note the following for NY cut later today: Y144.00($753mln).
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