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July CPI Expected To Decelerate, Pressure Remains On Banxico Decision

MEXICO
  • Inflation at the top of the hour is expected to have decelerated in July from June's 5.88% reading, according to the median Bloomberg estimate. Base effects are likely to contribute to the decline, however, CPI reading still stands well above the ceiling of the target which prompted the central bank to pre-emptively hike rates in June.
    • Agricultural inflation likely picked up from 6.95% in June due to supply shocks and increasing global food prices.
    • Energy and regulated inflation should fall from 12.46% in the prior month, aided by base effects.
  • Analysts appear swayed towards another 25 basis point increase at Thursday's meeting, bringing the overnight target rate to 4.5%. Markets will look to this data set for confirmation following the central bank purposefully not signalling that the prior hike was necessarily the start of a tightening cycle.
    • 1200BST/0700ET – Mexico July CPI – Estimate 0.57% m/m, 0.53% prior
    • 1200BST/0700ET – Mexico July CPI – Estimate 5.78% y/y, 5.88% prior
    • 1200BST/0700ET – Mexico July Core CPI – Estimate 0.48% m/m, 0.57% prior
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