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July Cut Pricing Steady Post-Macklem Speech, Q&A and CPI Awaited

BOC

Almost no reaction in CAD or implied BoC rates to Gov Macklem's comments, which included no explicit guidance on the next rate move. Macklem said the job market can still pull off a soft landing and he's increasingly confident inflation is returning to target. Link to Macklem's speech text is here.

  • USDCAD had picked up slightly since the release, but is now back at pre-Macklem levels at 1.3663.
  • For the next BoC decision on July 24, market pricing remains for slightly less than 15bp in cuts (a little under 60% implied prob of a reduction).
  • Immediate focus turns to the Macklem Q&A at approx 3pm ET, which comes ahead of Tuesday's release of May CPI (earlier we flagged key metrics to watch).
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