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July Inflation Data, Marcel To Lead Seminar on Economic Outlook

CHILE
  • Annual headline inflation for July is expected to further decline to 6.4% Y/y on Tuesday from a prior reading of 7.6%. Non-core inflation should drive most of the slowdown due to food and energy, however core inflation is also decelerating. This forecast would be consistent with central bank projections, whereby policymakers see the average inflation rate falling to 6.1% in Q3 from 8.7% in Q2.
  • Markets will be eagerly awaiting the release following the central bank’s surprise 100bps rate cut in July, which has placed pressure on the Chilean peso alongside the global risk-averse sentiment. Data is due at 1300BST/0800ET:
    • July CPI M/m, est. 0.3%, prior -0.2%
    • July CPI Y/y, est. 6.4%, prior 7.6%
    • July CPI Ex Volatile Items M/m (prior 0.0%)
    • July CPI Ex Volatile Items Y/y (prior 9.1%)
  • Separately, we will be monitoring any comments as Finance Minister Mario Marcel and BancoEstado head Daniel Hojman lead a seminar on the economy’s outlook at 1300BST/0800ET.
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