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June CPI Beats Forecasts at +7.4%, up 0.9pp from May

SOUTH AFRICA
MNI (London)

SOUTH AFRICA JUN CPI +1.1% M/M (FCST +0.9%); MAY +0.7% M/M
SOUTH AFRICA JUN CPI +7.4% Y/Y (FCST +7.3%); MAY +6.5% Y/Y
SOUTH AFRICA JUN CORE CPI +4.4% Y/Y (FCST +4.3%); MAY +4.1% Y/Y

  • June saw another hot CPI print from South Africa as price pressures continue to see no easing. Headline CPI jumped 0.9pp to +7.4% y/y, the highest since May 2009 (8.0%), whilst core CPI rose 0.3pp to +4.4% y/y, both 0.1pp above consensus expectations.
  • Compared to May, prices accelerated by 1.1% m/m, quickening from the previous pace of +0.7% m/m.
  • Substantial increases were seen across food and beverages (+8.6% y/y), housing and utilities (+5.1% y/y) and transport (+20.0% y/y), the latter accounting for the largest share of headline inflation.
  • Continued supply chain disruptions and high energy prices remain driving forces behind inflationary pressures.
  • With CPI continuing to exceed the 3-6% target range, the SARB is expected to hike by 50bp to 5.25% tomorrow. The chance of a 75bp hike currently sits around 40%.

Source: Statistics South Africa

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