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June CPI Inflation Due Tomorrow

ARGENTINA
  • June CPI inflation data are expected tomorrow, with consensus for a 5.1% m/m increase in prices, bringing the annual rate a touch lower to 274% y/y. As noted earlier, however, Finance Minister Caputo sees inflation coming in below 5% m/m, while core may be above 3% m/m.
  • HSBC forecast June inflation at 4.8% m/m and 272.3% y/y, expecting it to continue around mid-single digits m/m for the remainder of the year. However, they anticipate slower disinflation from Q3 due to the postponed increase in tariffs that will impact regulated prices.
  • JP Morgan also estimate June CPI at 4.9% m/m. The monthly inflation print would thus mark a slight rebound from the 4.2%m/m reported back in May, on the back of regulated prices adjustments. High-frequency data suggest core inflation will print around 4.0% m/m, from 3.7% m/m previously and below the 3mma average through May at 6.5%.

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