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June CPI Inflation Expected To Decelerate Slightly

HUNGARY
  • This week, investors will strongly focus on NBH minutes coming out on July 7 and the June CPI print coming out on June 8, which is expected to decelerate to 4.9% (vs. 5.1% the previous month).
  • The next inflation prints will be key for policy outlook; as a reminder, the NBH raised its benchmark rate by 30bps at last meeting to 0.9% and participants are still expecting policymakers to hike by another 15bps at the next meeting on July 27.
  • This morning, economic data showed that May retail sales rose less than expected, up 5.8% YoY (vs. 7% exp.).
  • USDHUF has been moving sideways this week, oscillating around 296; first resistance to watch on the topside stands at 297.60 (100DMA), followed by 298.80 (200DMA). On the downside, first support stands at 295, followed by 291.70 (50DMA).
  • Hungary 10Y yield has been gradually retracing higher in the past few days, currently testing its 50DMA at 2.87%; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 3%. On the downside, first support stands at 2.80%, followed by 2.75%.
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