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June CPI Preview – Services Expected To Reverse May Acceleration

SWEDEN
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Swedish June inflation is due at 0700BST/0800CET, and is one of two inflation prints before the Riksbank’s August 20 meeting, where a 25bps cut is expected.

  • We think that any upside surprise to June CPIF ex-energy inflation will need to be taken alongside the July inflation data (due August 14) before meaningfully altering market expectations for an August cut.
  • Both the Bloomberg consensus and Riksbank’s June MPR expect CPIF ex-energy at 2.5% Y/Y, more-than reversing May’s acceleration to 3.0% Y/Y (vs 2.9% in April).
  • A reversal of May’s rise in services inflation is expected in June. Part of the acceleration in May was due to one-off events like Taylor Swift concerts and Eurovision.
  • There are mixed views on the expected contribution of food prices. A reminder that food inflation was higher-than-expected in the Norwegian June inflation print.
  • Headline CPIF is seen at 1.6% Y/Y (Riksbank 1.5%, May 2.3%), primarily due to energy base effects.
  • See below for a selection of analyst views:

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Swedish June inflation is due at 0700BST/0800CET, and is one of two inflation prints before the Riksbank’s August 20 meeting, where a 25bps cut is expected.

  • We think that any upside surprise to June CPIF ex-energy inflation will need to be taken alongside the July inflation data (due August 14) before meaningfully altering market expectations for an August cut.
  • Both the Bloomberg consensus and Riksbank’s June MPR expect CPIF ex-energy at 2.5% Y/Y, more-than reversing May’s acceleration to 3.0% Y/Y (vs 2.9% in April).
  • A reversal of May’s rise in services inflation is expected in June. Part of the acceleration in May was due to one-off events like Taylor Swift concerts and Eurovision.
  • There are mixed views on the expected contribution of food prices. A reminder that food inflation was higher-than-expected in the Norwegian June inflation print.
  • Headline CPIF is seen at 1.6% Y/Y (Riksbank 1.5%, May 2.3%), primarily due to energy base effects.
  • See below for a selection of analyst views: